Xu Ping, an analyst at Fubao Information Aluminum, said that domestic bauxite has been under-supplied, and about 70% relies on imports. At present, Australia has replaced Indonesia as the largest importer of bauxite in China. Raw material supply is tight, prices are rising or aluminum prices are supported on costs.
Andrew Wood, a Melbourne-based alumina company's Alumina Inc executive, also predicted in October 2014 that China's bauxite stocks will gradually run out in the second half of 2015, and China may face 10 million to 15 million tons of bauxite. Mine supply gap.
J.P. Morgan said in a recent report that Chinese bauxite stocks hoarded by Chinese traders will be reduced by about 1 million to 2 million tons per month, and China's bauxite stocks will be in a tight state. The report said that if this situation continues in 2015, this means that aluminum prices will rise, and most suppliers, including Rio Tinto, are expected to raise the price of aluminum long orders.
Since September 2014, China's electrolytic aluminum prices have continued to decline. As of January 6, it has fallen to around 12,790 yuan / ton, down 15% from the high of 15010 yuan / ton in September 2014. Lun Aluminum has also dropped sharply since the beginning of December last year, with a cumulative drop of 14% in the past month.
In 2015, the excess pressure of electrolytic aluminum in China was still too large, and some new capacity was released in the first quarter. This is also a negative factor for the rise in aluminum prices. My colored network believes that the spot aluminum price in 2015 will remain at 12,600~15,200 yuan / ton.