Outlook: 2015 aluminum deep processing is still the focus
專欄:Industry information
發布日期:2015-01-12
閱讀量:609
作者:佚名
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1. Review of the trend of the sector in 2014 and its causes. In 2014, the non-ferrous metal sector rose by 41.25%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose by 34.11%, outperforming th..........
       1. Review of the trend of the sector in 2014 and its causes. In 2014, the non-ferrous metal sector rose by 41.25%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose by 34.11%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index by 7.14 percentage points. In 2014, the non-ferrous sector generated a total of three investment opportunities. The first increase in nickel prices led the second increase in aluminum and zinc prices, and the third was driven by the broader market. The first two waves are related to the industry but are difficult to grasp. The latter wave is a rotation of the entire market based on the valuation and repair, and it is not easy to grasp. Our key Asia-Pacific technology [-1.42% fund research report], Liyuan refining, although not very big relationship with the three wave market, but outperformed the industry index, and even outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, especially Asia-Pacific technology, running The industry index was 53%, which was due to the positive development of the aluminum deep processing industry that we pointed out at the beginning of 2014. Our consistent investment strategy has been better reflected.

       2.2015: Aluminum deep processing is still the focus, taking into account the new energy and military related standards.

Basic metal support is still insufficient, but 2015 is better than 2014. The oversupply pattern of major varieties has improved, but short-term demand is still insufficient. The implementation of the “One Belt, One Road” strategy will improve demand in the long run, but it is unlikely to be substantially improved. Aluminum deep processing is still a point of view: the excess of the upstream is still difficult to change, the advantages of the aluminum processing industry will continue with the advantage of the smelting industry, the light weight trend of the automotive industry is becoming more and more obvious, and the advantages of deep processing industry are more obvious. At the same time, the goals given by the National Development and Reform Commission and the industry associations continue. After the implementation is completed, the deep processing is clear. In the direction of new energy and military industry: the increase in demand will gradually deepen, and the policy dividend will continue to be released.

        3. Investment strategy. Taking into account the factors affecting the industry's trend, the support from basic metals in 2015 is not strong, but compared with 2014, the sector will also benefit from the deepening of the reform and maintain the industry's “overweight” rating. The focus remains on the deterministic Asia-Pacific technology and Liyuan refining. Continue to pay attention to the non-ferrous stone [-1.57% fund research report], steel research Gao Na [0.66% fund research report], Tianqi lithium industry [0.84% fund research report], Yan Feng lithium industry [-1.51% fund research report] , Tibet Mining [0.89% fund research report], Zhongke Sanhuan [-0.40% fund research report], Ningbo Yunsheng [4.02% fund research report], investment opportunities in this direction still suggest other ways to analyze, have relevant capabilities Investors are involved.

       4. Investment risk. The price trend of metals is lower than expected; the uncertainty of the implementation of metal new materials policy; the uncertainty of the process of reform in related fields.

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