33 analysts estimate that the average aluminum price this year is $1,965 per ton, which is 1.8% lower than the previous estimate. It is also the smallest undergraduate in the basic metal group this season.
The steady demand from the automotive and aerospace industries, as well as the decline in production outside China, is expected to result in a supply gap of 54,500 tons in the aluminum market this year. The 2016 supply gap is expected to increase to 125,000 tons.
Last October's survey estimated that the supply surplus in 2014 was 38,500 tons, and the shortage of aluminum this year was 102,000 tons.
Inventories in the London Metal Exchange (LME) registered warehouse have steadily declined, and stocks have fallen by a quarter since the beginning of 2014. This also supports the view that the supply of aluminum is tight.
“We estimated US$1,800 per ton a year ago, but aluminum demand may increase. We hope that China’s new supply will be balanced by new demand and high cost and high pollution capacity closure,” SP Angel analysts gave to Reuters. Said in the report.